Suwanee River Long Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Seasonal Climate Predictions

While the Suwanee River, located in northern Florida, is not a primary drinking-water supply for the region, communities and residents are affected adversely by flooding. Currently, no streamflow forecast is made for the river, but the National Weather Service provides a 5-d forecast based on data from radar, reservoir releases, river gages, and historical climate data. Results are presented from a study in which the best climate predictors for Suwannee River streamflow were identified. The major datasets used were historical streamflow data for the river and historical climate and oceanic data for the Pacific Ocean. Linear correlations between seasonal climate indicators and seasonal streamflow were performed. Results show that El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index was a good indicator of winter and spring streamflow, as was sea-surface temperature.