Changes in large rainstorm magnitude–frequency over the last century in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo and their geomorphological implications

Increases in the frequency of large to extreme rainfall events are widely predicted with global warming, but evidence from the humid tropics is hampered by a paucity of long-term data. This paper assesses changes in daily rainfall magnitude–frequency and their geomorphological consequences in the equatorial environment of northern Borneo using (1) rare daily rainfall data series for 1906–2012 assembled from archival and current sources and (2) geomorphological process data from the Danum Valley area of eastern Sabah. Rainstorm changes are explored using (1) analysis of frequencies of daily falls above threshold values, (2) extreme-value analysis comparing differences in locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) best-fit curves for successive 20-year periods and (3) a novel approach constructing graphs of long-term change in daily falls of 1- to 10-year return period derived from overlapping 20-year LOESS curves. Substantial increases, some statistically significant, since 1980 (intensifying since 1999) are detected at most stations in (1) the frequency of daily falls ≥50, 100 and 200 mm and (2) the magnitudes of daily falls with return periods of 0.2–5.0 years. The scale and temporal patterns of historical change vary with (1) coastal aspect and (2) different parts of the return period spectrum. The period 1921–1940 exhibited higher rainstorm magnitude–frequency than 1952–1979 and demonstrates the dangers of simple deductions derived from post-1960 data comparisons. Geomorphological responses indicated by long-term monitoring at Danum (eastern Sabah), where there has been a marked upswing in heavy rainfalls since 1999, include a threefold increase in slopewash rates, more frequent high flows and higher sediment loads. The very high soil pipe sediment yields, rates of pipe roof collapse and stream channel extension recorded from 2002 to 2012 in pipe systems at Danum may be a consequence of this upswing. Increased landsliding is also a likely consequence, exacerbated in logged, agricultural and urban terrain.