Comparative analysis of viral genomes from acute and chronic hepatitis B reveals novel variants associated with a lower rate of chronicity

Infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) may lead to an acute or chronic infection. It is generally accepted that the clinical outcome of infection depends on the balance between host immunity and viral survival strategies. In order to persist, the virus needs to have a high rate of replication and some immune‐escape capabilities. Hence, HBVs lacking these properties are likely to be eliminated more rapidly by the host, leading to a lower rate of chronicity. To test this hypothesis, 177 HBV genomes from acute non‐fulminant cases and 1,149 from chronic cases were retrieved from GenBank for comparative analysis. Selection of candidate nucleotides associated with the disease state was done using random guess cut‐off and the Bonferroni correction. Five significant nucleotides were detected using this filtering step. Their predictive values were assessed using the support vector machine classification with five‐fold cross‐validation. The average prediction accuracy was 61% ± 1%, with a sensitivity of 24% ± 1%, specificity of 98% ± 1%, positive predictive value of 92% ± 4% and negative predictive value of 56% ± 1%. BCP/X, enhancer I and surface/polymerase variants were found to be associated almost exclusively with acute hepatitis. These HBV variants are novel potential markers for non‐progression to chronic hepatitis. J. Med. Virol. 85:419–424, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.