Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources in Egypt to Climate Change in the Nile Basin

The Nile River forms more than 95% of Egypt's national water budget, but the specific discharge of the river is the lowest for all river basins with areas greater than 1 million km super(2). A water-balance approach is used to model the impacts of future global climate change on Nile River flow and to identify possible adaptation options for Nile Basin management. Based on three general circulation model scenarios for the basin, the Nile Basin is found to be extremely sensitive to any change in climate. The response of the basin to precipitation change is not linear, but is symmetric for both increased and decreased precipitation. With a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, the models predict from a 30% increase to a 77% decrease in river flows. Decreasing water demand is recommended via more efficient irrigation management.