A review of work done to forecast pest insect attacks in UK horticultural crops

The timing of attack by pest insects can vary greatly both from region to region and from year to year because the rates at which insects complete their life cycles depends mainly on temperature. A simulation method has been produced for forecasting the timing of attacks by the cabbage root fly ( Delia radicum), the carrot fly ( Psila rosae), the bronzed-blossom beetle ( Meligethes aeneus) and the large narcissus fly ( Merodon equestris) from standard weather data collected daily at regional meteorological stations. In collaboration with the Horticultural Development Council (HDC), Horticulture Research International sends a total of 437 updated forecasts each week to growers who pay a levy to the HDC. Forecasts are now being developed for timing attacks by the cabbage aphid, lettuce aphids and by cabbage caterpillars.