Assessment of GHG emission reduction pathways in a society without carbon capture and nuclear technologies

Every possible technology is pursued in order to achieve strict radiative forcing targets. Nuclear energy and Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) are regarded as important mitigation options. However, harsh criticisms have been directed at Japanese nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident, and the Japanese government will be required to re-evaluate not only its energy policy, but also the GHG reduction target itself. Like nuclear energy, CCS might not be regarded as a suitable option for GHG mitigation because its long-term safety has not been revealed. In this paper we analyze the energy policy response to an absence of nuclear energy and CCS, especially focusing on Japan, China and India. We find that the appropriate energy strategies against the unproven technologies differ between regions due to the uneven pre-existing nuclear energy, CCS potential and renewable energy potential, and the resource endowments and the levels of economic development. We also find that the strict mitigation target can be achieved even if nuclear energy and CCS are not available. In such a case, however, significant enhancement of renewable energy is needed, as well as particular fossil fuel alternatives based on region-specific availabilities and costs. ► We used a recursive-dynamic CGE model in which many advanced technologies are considered. ► We simulated radiative forcing targets assuming no availability of nuclear and CCS. ► The appropriate energy strategies against the unproven technologies differ between regions. ► The significant enhancement of renewable energy is needed, as well as particular fossil fuel alternatives.