Great Lakes Levels and Flows: Past and Future

The many analyses of the more than 100 years’ record of Great Lakes levels and of precipitation in the basin are generally assumed to provide a reasonable basis for predicting, statistically, future lake levels. The usefulness of this assumption is questioned because of increasing consumptive use of Great Lakes waters, and probable climatic change over the next century. The International Joint Commission's 1981 report on consumptive use and diversions gives as its most likely scenario an annual growth of 2.7% in consumptive uses. By the year 2035, this would reduce Great Lakes outflows by about 708 m 3 (25,000 cfs), with an estimated loss of “$200 million per year in hydro power production.” The climatic effects of the inexorable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) due mainly to burning of fossil fuels are still difficult to predict. However, the best predictions available suggest that in the next 70 years or so, the mean air temperature in the Great Lakes basin will rise by approximately 3C° and may well be accompanied by slightly less precipitation. Increases in evaporation from the Great Lakes would be equivalent to 7–8% of the mean annual flow of the St. Lawrence. These two factors — increased evaporation and increased consumptive uses — suggest that significantly lower lake levels and flows of interconnecting channels and the St. Lawrence River are likely in the next century.