Shrinking welfare states? Comparing maternity leave benefits and child care programs in European Union and North American welfare states, 1985-2000

This paper tests whether changes in program design, coverage, and government funding of maternity and parental leave and child care and early childhood education (ECE) programs can be observed over the past fifteen years in European and North American countries. Analysis of cross-national and cross- time data reveals, first, that reports of the welfare state's demise do not hold true in these areas. In most of the countries surveyed, the number of places for children in child care and ECE expanded, as did the duration of maternity/parental leaves (although the benefit levels declined in some countries). Second, the data reveal some policy convergence by the late 1990s, although not as much as functionalist theories would expect. Statistical analysis of factors to account for the continued though decreasing divergence reveals that traditional theories of welfare state variation hold greater explanatory power in the late 1980s than in the late 1990s. Demand factors continue to play a role in maternity leave duration but while a combination of demand, political and spending factors help to account for variation across countries in the 1980s, by the 1990s none were relevant in explaining variation in three of our policy fields. These results suggest that the scope of substantive policy provision is even more dependent on domestic policy choices.