Future Climate Impacts in Woodland and Forest Steppe Based on Holocene Paleoclimatic Trends, Paleobotanical Change in Central Part of the Carpathian Basin (Hungary)

The Sirok Nyirjes-to peat bog provides an almost full Holocene climatic record reconstructed by bog surface wetness investigations based on plant macrofossil analysis. We compared our macrofossil data to anthracological material derived from archaeological sites and to the newest bioclimatological models of the Carpathian basin. On the basis of environmental historical and climatic data we aimed to reconstruct the expected changes of forested areas in the Carpathian Basin. The results indicate that the surface wetness decreases in long term. Parallel to the Sphagnum-peat decline an open forest and forest steppe developed surrounding the bog. The complete disappearance of Sphagna from the area must be linked to a steady drop in rainfall, resulting in at least 50 mm deficit in the local water balance. This could have been achieved by an increased evapotranspiration as a result of elevated temperatures of the summer growth season. This deficit value must have exceeded even 100 mm during the Middle Holocene Transition.