Prospective Dynamic Assessment of Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Individuals with an Intellectual Disability and a History of Sexual Offending Behaviour

Background The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool. Method A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO‐S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC‐99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability. Results The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO‐S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC‐99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58). Conclusions Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO‐S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.