Uncertainty in health risk analysis

This paper discuss several quantitative issues that arise in the analysis of health risks, beginning with principles such as de minimis and zero-risk. The paper also provides a probabilistic definition of risk in terms of hazard, context, consequence, magnitude, and uncertainty. The example relies on this definition to investigate, through sensitivity analysis, the effect that uncertainty has on the results obtained. The results, from a case study based on waterborne total arsenic, show that the choice of dose—response functions causes more uncertainty than any other component of risk analysis. Chemical carcinogenesis provides the basis for discussing inability to know as well as uncertainty. The conclusion is that risk analysis keeps uncertainty and inability to know separate; through this function, it provides a much needed method to present information to decision makers and the public.