Which measures of time preference best predict outcomes: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment

► A variety of different methods have been developed to measure time preferences. ► It is unclear which measures best predict outcomes. ► A large sample of non-students is surveyed using many of the standard methods. ► The (β, δ) formulation of present bias and exponential discounting predicts best. Economists and psychologists have devised numerous instruments to measure time preferences and have generated a rich literature examining the extent to which time preferences predict important outcomes; however, we still do not know which measures work best. With the help of a large sample of non-student participants and administrative data on outcomes, we gather four different time preference measures and test the extent to which they predict both on their own and when they are all forced to compete head-to-head. Our results suggest that the now familiar (β, δ) formulation of present bias and exponential discounting predicts best, especially when both parameters are used.