A new integrated tool for complex decision making: Application to the UK energy sector

This paper presents a new integrated tool and decision support framework to approach complex problems resulting from the interaction of many multi-criteria issues. The framework is embedded in an integrated tool called OUTDO11OUTDO — Oxford University Tool for Decision Organisation. (Oxford University Tool for Decision Organisation). OUTDO integrates Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), decision rationale representation and management, and probabilistic forecasting to explore how changes in external parameters affect complicated and uncertain decision-making processes. OUTDO's features are showcased with a case study which recommends future energy sources for the Yorkshire and the Humber region in the UK, taking into consideration water consumption and the possibility of desalination of sea water. ► Presentation of a new decision support system and decision framework ► The effective capture of decision rationale with an extended IBIS representation ► Transparent resolution to complex problems with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis ► Dynamic and efficient re-use of the decision rationale through parameters changes ► Inclusion of probabilistic forecasting to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis