UNDERSTANDING CHINA'S DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS AND LABOR ISSUE

One of the major concerns about the one-child policy is its negative impact on the current and future labor force in China. People have talked about the Lewis Turning Point and the end of demographic dividends. Some of these arguments, however, can be misleading. The working-age population (ages 15 to 59) can be treated as the potential labor force supply. It is true that the continuous decline of China's fertility level over the past 30 years has partially resulted in the recent decline of the proportion of the young labor force. Nevertheless, there is no major change in the total size of the labor force. The author suggests that the shortage of the current Chinese labor force cannot be explained simply by the size of the labor force. The demographic dividend and the demographic debt are actually caused by the same demographic event: fertility decline, but the consequences are shown in different time periods. The author concludes that It is only natural that people respond to an aging population through reforming and improving population policies. However, an aging population is a consequence of both the increase in lifespan and falling fertility, and this process will not be radically reversed by merely adjusting fertility policies. What deserves more attention is an adaptation strategy to this population trend and adjusting or restructuring institutional arrangements and integrating public policies. (Contains 1 figure.)