An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)

The agriculture sector’s contribution to energy production is a central issue in ongoing policy debates, and one of the central elements of the development of Bioeconomy sector. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is one of the main determinants of the different farm strategies of European farmers. The CAP is now undergoing a thorough revision process which necessarily includes a debate of the role of the policy in rural areas and the effectiveness of the various CAP policy mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of alternative CAP scenarios in the light of the possible changes in 2013 and the willingness to adopt energy plants for energy crops in the Province of Bologna (Italy). This is pursued using both survey information and farm-household mathematical programming models, hence using stated intentions and simulated profitability to analyse the adopt of new technologies for energy production. The results underscore the relevance of the CAP scenarios in altering intentions with regard to the adoption of energy production and the relevant effect of uncertainty in delaying the diffusion of energy production systems. ► We analyse policy effects on adoption of energy production by the farms. ► CAP scenario strongly affects the intention to adopt energy productions. ► Uncertainty in decision variables have the effect to postpone the decision on energy productions.