Growth, degrowth and climate change: A scenario analysis

The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions. This is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using LowGrow, a simulation model of the Canadian economy. The scenarios considered are ‘business as usual’ which is a projection into the future of past trends, ‘selective growth’ in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and ‘degrowth’ where the average GDP/capita of Canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits. The paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios. ► Substantial reductions in GHG emissions will not be achieved by reductions in GHG intensity alone. ► Reductions in the scale of the economy will also be necessary. ► I use LowGrow, a model of the Canadian economy, to explore several low/no/degrowth scenarios. ► The scenarios show reductions in GHG, full employment, poverty mitigation, and fiscal balance.