Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks

The importation of infected hosts and the arrival of windborne infected Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were considered unlikely mechanisms for bluetongue virus (BTV) incursion into a BTV‐free area during the recent BTV serotype 8 (BTV‐8) epidemic in northern Europe. Therefore, alternative mechanisms need to be considered. Air, sea and land transport networks continue to expand, and an important consequence of this is vector‐borne pathogen importation. One important aspect of bluetongue (BT) epidemiology not yet addressed is the potential movement of infected Culicoides via transport and trade networks. Therefore, a risk assessment model was constructed to assess the probability of a BTV outbreak as a consequence of the introduction of Culicoides via these networks. The model was applied to calculate the risk for a BTV‐8 epidemic in Spain in 2007 caused by the introduction of Culicoides from affected northern European countries. The mean weighted annual risk for an outbreak caused by transportation of a single vector from an affected northern European country varied from 1.8 × 10−7 to 3.0 × 10−13, with the highest risks associated with Culicoides imported from Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France. For this mechanism to pose a significant risk to BTV‐free countries, a large number of vectors would have to be transported.