Serum markers for predicting significant necroinflammatory activity in patients with chronic hepatitis B

The aim of this study was to determine the serum markers that predict significant inflammation in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Between October 2005 and June 2009, 384 subjects with CHB were enrolled. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified the ALT, hyaluronic acid (HA) and procollagen III N-terminal peptide (PIIINP) as independent predictors of significant inflammation (grade≥3). We constructed a formula for predicting significant inflammation. A significant inflammation (SI) score=1.773×ALT score+1.599×PIIINP score+0.677×HA score−1.962. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the SI score was 0.831. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the SI score were 79.5%, 70.8%, 76.8% and 74.3%, respectively. A simple scoring system including ALT, PIIINP and HA is an accurate non-invasive predictor of significant inflammatory activities in patients with CHB. ► ALT, HA and PIIINP as predictors of significant inflammation in chronic hepatitis B. ► We constructed a formula predicting significant inflammation in chronic hepatitis B. ► The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the SI score was 0.831. ► A simple scoring system is an accurate predictor of significant inflammation.