Effect of national transportation/energy policy on regional transportation phenomena

Most regional transportation modeling studies have focused on microlevel phenomena operating within the region. In contrast, the model presented in this paper utilizes a hierarchical causality approach to examine the impact of higher-level (i.e., national) policies on macrolevel regional transportation characteristics. Specifically, the individual and joint effects of national trends in gasoline price, transit funding, and fuel economy of automobiles are examined with respect to their influence on two Sacramento regional variables: transit usage and transportation fuel consumption. The authors con clude that given the uncertain future of causal forces that are beyond the region's control (e.g., gasoline price), a macrolevel analysis may be a more judicious use of limited transportation planning resources.