Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation

Climate change is predicted to have a range of direct and indirect impacts on marine and freshwater capture fisheries, with implications for fisheries-dependent economies, coastal communities and fisherfolk. This technical paper reviews these predicted impacts, and introduces and applies the concepts of vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity. Capture fisheries are largely driven by fossil fuels and so contribute to greenhouse gas emissions through fishing operations, estimated at 40-130 Tg CO2. Transportation of catches is another source of emissions, which are uncertain due to modes and distances of transportation but may exceed those from fishing operations. Mitigation measures may impact on fisheries by increasing the cost of fossil fuel use. Fisheries and fisherfolk may be impacted in a wide range of ways due to climate change. These include biophysical impacts on the distribution or productivity of marine and freshwater fish stocks through processes such as ocean acidification, habitat damage, changes in oceanography, disruption to precipitation and freshwater availability. Fisheries will also be exposed to a diverse range of direct and indirect climate impacts, including displacement and migration of human populations; impacts on coastal communities and infrastructure due to sea level rise; and changes in the frequency, distribution or intensity of tropical storms. Fisheries are dynamic social-ecological systems and are already experiencing rapid change in markets, exploitation and governance, ensuring a constantly developing context for future climate-related impacts. These existing socioeconomic trends and the indirect effects of climate change may interact with, amplify or even overwhelm biophysical impacts on fish ecology. The variety of different impact mechanisms, complex interactions between social, ecological and economic systems, and the possibility of sudden and surprising changes make future effects of climate change on fisheries difficult to predict. The vulnerability of fisheries and fishing communities depends on their exposure and sensitivity to change, but also on the ability of individuals or systems to anticipate and adapt. This adaptive capacity relies on various assets and can be constrained by culture or marginalization. Vulnerability varies between countries and communities, and between demographic groups within society. Generally, poorer and less empowered countries and individuals are more vulnerable to climate impact