Estimating AIS Coverage from Received Transmissions

This paper proposes a new method for estimating Automatic Identification System (AIS) coverage empirically from received transmissions. The method is appropriate for stationary coverage assets, as distinct from aircraft and satellites. The key idea behind the method is to interpolate probabilistically between AIS reports in order to reconstruct where the missed transmissions might have occurred. These hypothetical missed transmissions then supplement the received ones in a coverage estimate based on a Bayesian treatment of a binomial model of reception. The final estimate of the coverage is implemented over a spatial grid. The method is demonstrated on simulated AIS data and was found to have lower mean squared error than a previously published method. Assumptions and potential weaknesses of the new method are discussed.