Effects of the Bam earthquake on employment: a shift-share analysis

Disasters have potential short‐term and long‐term impacts on employment and employment structures in affected regions. While measuring the full economic impact of a disaster requires sophisticated econometrics and mathematical simulations, conventional regional economic models such as shift‐share analysis can be used to assess some of these effects. This paper applies shift‐share analysis to understand potential long‐term impacts of disasters on employment using the December 2003 Bam earthquake as a case study. The results provide further evidence that disasters could have significant long‐term effects on the employment structure of affected regions.