Recreational Freshwater Angler Success Is Not Significantly Different from a Random Catch Model

Most fish are caught by a small number of anglers. This striking empirical regularity has been attributed to angler skill, equipment, food‐web structure, and fisheries management. I use long‐term angler log data from Montana and creel survey data from the lower Current River of Missouri to test the hypothesis that inequality in fish catch is consistent with random chance. Catch data for largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and lake trout Salvelinus namaycush recorded in angler logs for six Montana lakes were highly unequal (Gini coefficients = 0.26–0.64) but not significantly different from the theoretical expectation that chance determines success. The catch data from the lower Current River creel survey were more unequal than the Montana angler log data (Gini coefficient = 0.71) but, again, not significantly different from the theoretical expectation that chance determines success. As the amount of time spent fishing increases, the mean catch increases and the shape of the probability distribution of obtaining a certain size catch changes from being positively skewed to being symmetrical. Effective tests of skill and other factors that might promote larger catches require better measures and appropriate data with which to evaluate alternative models. Received September 8, 2010; accepted January 3, 2011