The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negativ...

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Veröffentlicht in:Climatic change 2012-07, Vol.113 (2), p.141-162
Hauptverfasser: Lemoine, Derek M., Fuss, Sabine, Szolgayova, Jana, Obersteiner, Michael, Kammen, Daniel M.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO 2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from “carbon-free” technologies into “emission intensity” technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO 2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO 2 constraint earlier in the century.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4