The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio
Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO 2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negativ...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2012-07, Vol.113 (2), p.141-162 |
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Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO
2
) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO
2
concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO
2
constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from “carbon-free” technologies into “emission intensity” technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO
2
concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO
2
constraint earlier in the century. |
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ISSN: | 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4 |