CO2-free hydrogen as a substitute to fossil fuels: What are the targets? Prospective assessment of the hydrogen market attractiveness

Hydrogen is usually presented as a promising energy carrier that has a major role to play in low carbon mobility, through the use of fuel cells. However, such a market is not expected in the short term. In the meantime, hydrogen may also contribute to reduce carbon emissions in diverse sectors: oil refining, low carbon mobility through the industrial deployment of advanced biofuels, natural gas consumption, and methanol production. According to the targeted market, objective costs are rather different; and so is the reachable mitigated CO2 amount. This paper assesses the dynamics of these markets' attractiveness, in order to provide target costs for CO2-free hydrogen production. The potential of the markets of hydrogen as a fuel and hydrogen for the biomass-to-liquid production is highlighted, as they could represent significant volumes by 2050, as well as interesting perspectives for CO2 emission reduction. However the targets are very sensitive to the CO2 price, thus highlighting the requirement for economic instruments in order to facilitate the penetration of such technologies. Hydrogen is then highlighted as a key player of the energy system in the years to come, as the connection of the energy and mobility sectors. ► Several hydrogen markets' attractiveness dynamics are assessed. ► Target costs for CO2-free hydrogen production are provided. ► The potential of the markets of hydrogen as a fuel and to produce BtL is highlighted. ► Hydrogen appears as a key player of the energy system in the years to come. ► To help technologies enter these new markets, economic instruments are highly necessary.