The Twenty-First Century Will Not Be a "Post-American" World

One of the refreshing aspects of Christopher Layne's work over the years has been his willingness to challenge conventional wisdom. But now, he is in the awkward position of being part of a new conventional wisdom. Recent polls show that in 15 of 22 countries surveyed, most people say that China either will replace or has replaced America as the world's leading superpower. Even Americans themselves are equally divided about whether China will displace the United States. Layne is correct that such views reflect the slow growth and fiscal problems that followed the 2008 financial crisis, but one should be wary of extrapolating long-run trends from short-term cycles. Such moods are not historically unprecedented. Americans have a long history of incorrectly estimating their power. After Sputnik, the Soviets were 10 feet tall; in the 1980s, it was the Japanese. Now it is the Chinese. Layne...