When generative and preventive mechanisms meet with compatible and incompatible information in casual reasoning probability

Several recent models of probabilistic causal reasoning in adults propose the existence of multiple interactions between ascending and descending factors. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential interactions between knowledge about generative and preventive mechanisms, the delta p of the data, and the relative importance given to the type of data provided. Two experiments involving 54 participants each are conducted, in which participants are invited to quantify the nature of a potential link (causal or associative) between adding a chemical substance to the asphalt of the roads and the formation of a slippery road in the winter, after being given information suggestive of (1) a generative mechanism, (2) a preventive mechanism, or (3) nothing special. Results show an influence of the suggested mechanisms on the reading of data that were provided, especially those with a delta p that is compatible with the a priori mechanism. These results are interpreted and discussed in line with the importance of considering multiple factors in probabilistic causal reasoning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).