The gastroschisis prognostic score: reliable outcome prediction in gastroschisis

Abstract Background/Purpose Disease-specific outcome predictors are required for gastroschisis. We derived and validated a gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) based on bowel appearance after birth. Methods Visual scoring of bowel matting, necrosis, atresia, and perforation generated a novel gastroschisis bowel injury score recorded in a national database. Reweighting of score components by regression analysis led to assessments of model calibration and goodness of fit. The GPS was validated in subsequent cases. Results Records from 225 infants were used for model derivation. Only intestinal necrosis independently predicted mortality by regression analysis (odds ratio, 11.5; 95% confidence interval, 4.2-31.4). Model recalibration identified that a GPS of 4 or more predicted mortality in 75% of nonsurvivors and 99% of survivors ( P = .0001). A GPS of 2 or more demonstrated significantly worse survival outcomes compared with scores of 0 or 1 (length of stay: P = .011, days to first enteral feed: P = .013, days on total parenteral nutrition: P = .006). Model validation with 184 new patients yielded continued high-quality discrimination of outcomes. The GPS demonstrated “near-perfect” interobserver reliability between 2 surgeons ( κ ≥ 0.86). Conclusions The GPS allows the accurate and reliable identification of high-risk groups for mortality and morbidity based on bowel appearance at birth. This information can drive discussions regarding family counseling, resource allocation, and new therapies for these patients.