A study of probabilistic voltage profile analysis method in island power system

For island power systems, generally diesel engine generators are being used for supplying power. In recent years, much attention is being paid to renewable energy sources to improve the CO2 emission problem which is a serious issue worldwide. Although the utilization of renewable energy is effective, it poses problems because of the fact that the voltage profile changes due to the reverse power flow. Conventionally, the deterministic load model is used for power flow calculations. However, in a small power system such as the island power system, the deterministic model is not effective as the ‘law of great numbers’ is not applicable. Therefore, in this study, we have developed a new probabilistic approach to analyze the voltage profile of a small power network using the binomial distribution model. © 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.