A quantile regression analysis of the rebound effect: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey in the United States

This paper applies quantile regression method to measure the rebound effect and differentiate it with respect to demand for mobility using the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS). The quantile regression results indicate that the rebound effect varies with the distribution of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), ranging between 0.11 and 0.19. Road network density and population density also play an important role in determining travel demand. Regression results indicate that travelers living in areas with higher road network density travel more miles although this positive impact consistently declines along the VMT distribution. Travelers living in areas with population density of at most 3000 persons per square miles travel more miles than those living in higher density areas. The quantile regression results also indicate that the impact of income is positive but declines consistently along the VMT distribution. ► This paper examines the magnitude of rebound effect using the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey data. ► Quantile regression method is applied to capture the variation of the rebound effect given the heterogeneous travelers. ► The regression results indicate that the rebound effect varies with VMT distribution. ► The estimated rebound effect fluctuates between 0.11 and 0.19.