The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral decomposition from 1990 to 2007

Ireland recorded significant growth in energy-related carbon emissions from 1990 to 2007 as the country underwent rapid economic development. Using the LMDI decomposition analysis method, this paper aims to identify and analyse the driving forces of CO2 emissions in eleven final energy consuming sectors. This multi-sectoral analysis is based on four economic sectors, the residential sector and gives a detailed representation of transport in keeping with UNFCCC recommendations. Scale, structure and intensity effects are explored and substantial heterogeneity in sectoral performance is observed. Scale growth in economic and transport activity was considerable. Some improvements in energy intensity were recorded in the economic sectors. In transport, increases in intensity contributed to a significant increase in emissions, while energy intensity decreased in the residential sector. The declining emissions coefficient of electricity was important in limiting emissions but renewable energy has been slow to penetrate the demand side. The results have relevance in considering development paths and can aid in identifying policy measures required to address the key driving forces of emissions in the sectors. The rapid increase in transport emissions in particular raises concerns of future lock-in to a higher emissions trajectory. ► Multi-sectoral decomposition analyses four economic, the residential and six transport sectors. ► Many sectors are decomposed for the first time using scale, structure and intensity effects. ► Scale effects are the dominant factor in increasing energy-related CO2 emissions. ► Energy intensity effects vary from decrease to notable increase in some transport sectors. ► Results can aid consideration of development paths or identification of mitigation policies.