Diagnostic Accuracy of Maternal Serum Macrophage Inhibitory Cytokine-1 and Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A at 6–10 Weeks of Gestation to Predict Miscarriage

OBJECTIVE:To determine whether serum macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), anandamide, or β-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measured in an asymptomatic population in the middle of the first trimester with a viable fetus predicts subsequent miscarriage. METHODS:We undertook a prospective cohort study at Mercy Hospital for Women between 2004 and 2008. Participants (N=782) were recruited from prenatal clinics, where samples were taken from asymptomatic women at 6 0/7 to 10 6/7 weeks of gestation. We collected samples from only those women for whom we were able to obtain ultrasound evidence of a singleton with fetal cardiac activity. Serum macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1, PAPP-A, anandamide, and β-hCG concentrations were assayed. RESULTS:Twenty-one (2.7%) miscarried and 761 did not. Among those who miscarried, macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 and PAPP-A were significantly decreased at 63% (multiples of the median (MOM) 0.63, 25-75 percentiles 0.33–0.88) and 23% (MOM 0.23, 25–75 percentiles 0.12–0.48) of levels seen among those with ongoing pregnancies (P