Economic viability of small nuclear reactors in future European cogeneration markets

Small nuclear reactors align well with the small heat-capacity needs for many European process industries. Combined heat and power (CHP) reactors can support the EU low-carbon society goals while providing stability in production and cost. High temperature reactor technologies are well suited for the production of “high value” heat by producing temperatures of 200–550°C. However, little is known about the market potential or economic competitiveness of these reactors in future European cogeneration markets. This study shows that the greatest potential is in chemical/petroleum, paper, metal, and bioenergy markets with small capacities (50–250MWth). Target market costs for coal-CHP and natural gas-CHP were determined to range from 60–100€/MWh and 95–208€/MWh, respectively. Costs for “heat-only” ranges from 30–60€/MWh based on gas boilers. Parametric analysis was used to create a cost breakdown (capital, operations and maintenance, fuel, and decommissioning) for an equivalent nuclear CHP that could compete against coal-CHP and natural gas-CHP. Sensitivity analysis showed that reactor capital costs and the costs of capital had the largest influence on competitiveness. In summary, the opportunities for nuclear CHP are highest in natural gas-CHP markets; however the benefits for CO2 reduction were greatest against coal-CHP. ► Evaluation of target market competition costs of fossil fueled cogeneration in 2030. ► Allowable costs and cost breakdown for competitive nuclear cogeneration plant. ► Sensitivity analysis of parameters influencing competitiveness nuclear cogeneration.