Modelling the distribution and ecology of Trichosolen blooms on coral reefs worldwide

Worldwide blooms of the green alga Trichosolen have been reported on damaged coral reefs following catastrophic events. However, the global distribution of Trichosolen and the factors triggering such blooms remained elusive because of a paucity of occurrence records. This study presents a presence-only niche modelling approach to map the potential distribution and delineate bloom risk areas as well as to identify environmental response optima for non-blooming occurrences and blooms. The modelled suitability map revealed a pantropical to subtropical distribution, while high suitability values delineated bloom risk areas including important tropical reef systems where Trichosolen has not yet been reported from. While both blooms and non-bloom occurrences show a strong preference for high temperatures, blooms responded better to broader nutrient ranges than non-blooms, suggesting the importance of sudden nutrient inputs during catastrophic events in the formation of blooms.