ÉMERGENCE ET INTÉGRATION COMMERCIALE: UNE ILLUSTRATION À PARTIR DE L'ACCORD DE LIBRE-ÉCHANGE ENTRE LE MAROC ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS(1)

The agreement signed between Morocco and the United States on June 15, 2004, and put into operation the January 1, 2006, foresees different modalities in dismantling tariffs across sectors. Our study aims at assessing the likely consequences of this agreement on the welfare, the rate of growth and the sectoral trade balance of the two countries and more generally speaking to the potential contribution of this agreement to the emergence of the Moroccan economy. To this end, we use a partial equilibrium model (WITS/SMART model developed jointly by the World Bank and UNCTAD), in order to reveal some key products/activities which can be identified as "sensitive". This is possible because the WITS-SMART model is product-specific and allows us to analysis impacts at very fine levels of detail such as the tariff line level (6-digit level). We also use a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP model) so as to address more precisely producer impacts and intersectoral and interregional linkage effects. More precisely, our findings justify the interest of a gradual and asymmetrical agreement. In addition, the free trade agreement (FTA) between the US and Morocco will have a significant impact not only on trade between the two countries, but also on their trading relationships with other countries. The most important trade diversion will affect the EU and particularly France and Spain, which are Morocco's largest trading partner. It will also adversely affect some other North African countries. The FTA will thus offer the opportunity to Morocco to diversify its markets and its capabilities, which are currently focused on a few number of European partners. [PUB ABSTRACT]