A Short-Term Forecasting Algorithm for Network Traffic Based on Chaos Theory and SVM

Recently, the forecasting technologies for network traffic have played a significant role in network management, congestion control and network security. Forecasting algorithms have also been investigated for decades along with the development of Time Series Analysis (TSA). Chaotic Time Series Analysis (CTSA) may be used to model and forecast the time series by Chaos Theory. As one of the prevailing intelligent forecasting algorithms, it is worthwhile to integrate CTSA and Support Vector Machine (SVM). In this paper, after the vulnerabilities of Local Support Vector Machine (LSVM) in forecasting modeling are analyzed, the Dynamic Time Wrapping (DTW) and the “Dynamic K” strategy are introduced, as well as a short-term network traffic forecasting algorithm LSVM-DTW-K based on Chaos Theory and SVM is presented. Finally, two sets of network traffic datasets collected from wired and wireless campus networks, respectively, are studied for our experiments.