Price discovery in the Indian gold futures market

This paper examines the price discovery process of the nascent gold futures contracts in the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) over the period 2003 to 2007. The study employs vector error correction models (VECMs) to show that futures prices of both standard and mini contracts lead spot price. We find that mini contracts contribute to over 30% of price discovery in gold futures trade even though they account for only 2% of trading value on the MCX. Our finding reveals that trades initiated in mini contracts are much more informative than what the size of their market share of volume suggests.