DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES OF GENERATION DISTRIBUTED AND ITS FUTURE IMPACTS ON ENERGY COMPANIES

This paper develops a forecast of the future impact of disruptive technologies for distributed generation on the distribution of electric energy, with use of scenarios. Distributed generation (DG) is defined by the power generation technologies for which production is intended primarily to serve local loads, and disruptive technologies are considered those that, in general, cannot be easily evaluated by a dominant company, but when it is discovered by consumers, the firm changes the initial characteristics of the market and are rapidly incorporated by new consumers and producers. To accomplish the paper, it was used a methodology for the elaboration of scenarios from the use of combined techniques such as Delphi, quantitative extrapolation of data, Analysis and Structuring of Models (AEM) and evaluation of impacts. The results indicate that, with the advent of distributed generation, it will be possible to mitigate any eventual effects of uncertainty on the demand for energy. Thus, as a consequence of less uncertainty in supply, the introduction of distributed generation can contribute with the reliability and efficiency of the system more.