Use of Interactions between NAO and MJO for the Prediction of Dry and Wet Spell in Monsoon Season

The Indian summer monsoon exhibits prominent 30-40 day fluctuations with active periods of heavy rain interrupted by dry periods i.e. Breaks. The circulation anomalies associated with active/break monsoon cover the entire Indian Ocean remote tropics and North Pacific Ocean. A prolonged dry/wet period will result in severe drought/flooding, which have profound influences on the south Asia water cycle, agriculture and societal activity of more than one billion people. The atmospheric general circulation models have great difficulty in simulating the Intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO). Therefore, it is necessary to study the empirical relationship between various atmospheric processes, which are responsible for the ISO. In this paper, the analysis of North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and Madden Julian Oscillation Index (MJOI) on daily scale is carried out in relation to daily Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June-September). The analysis is carried out for the period 1979-2001. Since the potential predictability limit for monsoon break is about 20 days, the 20 days running lag/lead correlation analysis between the NAOI and MJOI is found out for each year. It is observed that 20-day lag relationship between NAO and MJO is inverse and significant (0.1 level) and this relationship remains negative throughout the break monsoon period and in active phase it reverses. This twenty days lag relationship between NAO and MJO is potential predictor for break/ active monsoon conditions over the Indian region. The analysis is verified for major drought year 2002.