Imprisonment and crime: Can both be reduced?

Since 1972, the rate of incarceration in US state and federal prisons has increased every year without exception from a rate of 96 prisoners per 100,000 population in 1972 to 504 prisoners per 100,000 in 2008. Counting those housed in jails, the nation's total incarceration rate has surpassed 750 per 100,000. Much research has been done on the effect of this increase in incarceration on crime rates as well as on the social and economic costs of the ensuing fivefold increase in the nation's imprisonment rate. Here, Durlauf and Nagin argue that it is a realistic possibility that crime, prison costs, and imprisonment numbers can be reduced simultaneously if policy makers shift their focus from a primary reliance on severity-based policies, mandating lengthy prison terms, to a focus on a more effective use of police to make the risks of crime clearer and the consequences of crime faster and more certain.