Prediction of a tectonic earthquake: Determination of the earthquake place and energy from vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface

In the 20th century, observations conducted with the local leveling network of the Garm research area revealed vertical displacements of the Earth's surface that were considered as precursors of the earthquakes of September 13, 1973 (M = 4.2), and June 9, 1975 (M = 5.2). In this paper, these observations are used to solve inverse problems of the theory of earthquake preparation in relation to the prediction problem. On the basis of such observations immediately before an earthquake, only the location and energy of the forthcoming earthquake could be determined. Results obtained for the stronger earthquake show satisfactory agreement with parameters of the real event. Results for the weaker earthquake are less satisfactory, but the disagreement cannot be regarded as absolutely unacceptable.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]