Selective Associations and Causality Judgments: Presence of a Strong Causal Factor May Reduce Judgments of a Weaker One

In 5 experiments, humans played video games in which 2 events or causes covaried with an outcome. In Experiments 1 and 2, a highly correlated cause (a plane) of an outcome (success at traversing a minefield) reduced judgments of the strength of a weaker cause (camouflaging or painting a tank). In Experiment 3, similar results were found when both causes were negatively correlated with the outcome. In Experiment 4, strong positive or negative contingencies caused the subjects to reduce judgments of contingencies of the opposite polarity. These results can be accounted for by associative or connectionist models from animal learning such as the Rescorla-Wagner model. In Experiment 5, this type of model was contrasted with a representational model in which subjects are claimed to monitor accurately the various contingencies but use a rule in which the presence of a strong contingency causes them to discount weaker contingencies.