An Analysis of North Korea’s Satellite Launches

In December of 2012, North Korea successfully launched a satellite, after failures in 1998, 2009 and 2012. The carrier missiles used during the last three launches are of a new design. Computer simulations of different models for these missiles, using information on the satellite trajectories, show that they require more advanced technology than North Korea has demonstrated previously. This knowledge allows an estimate of the performance of two road mobile ballistic missiles shown during parades in 2010 and 2012. The first, known as the Musudan, theoretically has a range that is considerably larger than the currently operational North Korean missiles. The second, the KN-08, however, is too heavy to be based on the rocket engines used in the missiles used for the satellite launches, which means that it is either a mock-up or that North Korea is developing more powerful engines. The lack of a flight test program makes it unlikely that either of these missiles is close to being operational.