How the Russian–Ukrainian war reshapes the climate policy context

The Russian military aggression against Ukraine has had significant global impacts on energy security, economy and geopolitics. The 2022 global energy crisis raises questions about how the war affects the energy transition and global climate policy. However, there are limited studies that incorporate its effects into self-consistent projections of alternative scenarios. This scenario study uses two leading macro-economic models and one integrated assessment model to assess how the war in Ukraine and its direct implications - trade restrictions and rising energy prices - affect economies, energy supply and demand trends, emissions and the feasibility of climate policies. The models consistently project that the disruptive responses to the war lead to a shift from fossil fuels (notably natural gas) to renewable energy and a consequent CO2 emission reduction of about 1%-5%, in the period up to 2050, both for the European Union and globally. However, projections differ across models in terms of sectoral and regional contributions to emission reductions. The results are found to be highly sensitive to the expected, yet uncertain persistence of higher fossil energy prices due to the war, which depends on the duration of the conflict, the disruption of global energy supplies and the response of other major fossil fuel exporters.