Sentencing decisions around quantity thresholds: theory and experiment

Objectives We study the effects of quantity thresholds (such as drug amount) used to divide offenses into subsections on sentencing decisions by professional sentencers Methods In a vignette experiment, 200 Czech prosecutors recommended a length of prison sentence in drug possession and theft cases Results We provide experimental evidence that quantity thresholds increase the recommended average prison sentence by 10 to 55%. We develop a conceptual framework that decomposes the effect of quantity thresholds into two opposing effects: the severity and the reference effects. We provide suggestive evidence for the existence of severity and reference effects. Using new parametric measures of ordinal (in)justice, we further quantify the effect of thresholds on the probability of an ordinally just sentence for a given level of tolerance. Conclusions Quantity thresholds, designed to limit sentencing disparities, introduce a different source of disparity which might substantially limit the net benefits of such provisions Preregistration AEARCTR-0006023