The Two-Way Effects of Populism on Affective Polarization

Despite attention in comparativist and Americanist literatures to populism and affective polarization, relatively little theoretical and empirical work has been done linking these two concepts. We present a comprehensive theory arguing that populism leads to greater affective polarization among both populist citizens and non-populist citizens, and that the latter effect grows as populism increases. We test this two-way effect using V-Dem expert rankings of populism and CSES surveys to measure affective polarization for 185 elections in 53 countries. This cross-regional analysis confirms and extends previous claims of a strong correlation between populist party identity and individual-level affective polarization; just as important, it also shows that an individual’s affective polarization is associated with populism at the country level, whether or not that individual is a supporter of populist parties. We show further that these results help explain a common finding in the comparative literature, that radical-right parties in Western democracies are disproportionately the target of animosity from other parties.