Sustainability of Groundwater Exploitation Under Climate Change Scenarios in a Mountainous Area of South Korea

The excessive extraction of groundwater is a globally significant issue, as it can lead to the permanent loss of groundwater system sustainability. Sustainable groundwater requires development that appropriately balances the needs of both humans and the environment. In this study, the exploitable groundwater (EGW) of the So-Yang-gang Dam (SYD) Basin was estimated based on simulated groundwater recharge rates using SWAT, and the sustainability of future groundwater development was evaluated under different climate change scenarios. The EGW in each sub-watershed of the SYD was estimated to range from 60 to 240 mm/year, with higher values in the upstream watersheds. A sustainability index (SI) was evaluated, ranging from 0.56 to 1.0 across various GCMs. The analysis revealed that uniform EGW across a watershed is overestimated value in sub-watersheds with low recharge rates, potentially accelerating groundwater depletion in those areas. Thus, a flexible EGW estimation approach is essential to balance groundwater conservation with human water demands.