Business cycles and dividend payments: A study in the Brazilian market

ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyze the behavior of the dividend distribution of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of the business cycles, comparing the stages of recovery, expansion, recession, and contraction (Schumpeter, 1935) with the stages of expansion and recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originality/value: According to Schumpeter (1935), classifying the stages of the business cycle presents greater details to the NBER method because the four stages show different characteristics that are not observed when only the two stages of the NBER model are used. Design/methodology/approach: Information was collected from 243 publicly traded companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2021 to achieve the research objective. Data were obtained from the Refinitiv database, using panel data regression models with random effects to analyze two hypotheses defined in this study. The hypotheses state that the behavior of the relationship between the payment of dividends and the stages of the NBER’s bearish (high) business cycles is different from the recession and contraction stages (recovery and expansion), according to Schumpeter. Findings: The results indicated the non-rejection of the hypotheses, reinforcing the importance of the analysis of the four stages of the business cycles and complementary form by investors, analysts, managers, and other users when analyzing the payment of dividends by publicly held companies at the different levels of economic activity in the country. RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar o comportamento da distribuição de dividendos das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de acordo com os efeitos dos ciclos econômicos, comparando as fases de recuperação, expansão, recessão e contração (Schumpeter, 1935) com as fases de expansão e recessão conforme o National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originalidade/valor: O método de classificação das fases dos ciclos econômicos de acordo com Schumpeter (1935) apresenta maiores detalhes em relação ao método NBER. As quatro fases apresentam características diferentes e não são observadas quando usadas apenas as duas fases do modelo do NBER. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Para atingir o objetivo da pesquisa, foram coletadas informações de 243 empresas de capital aberto listadas na Bolsa de Valores Brasileira entre os anos 1997 e 2021. Os dados foram obtidos na base de dados da Refinitiv, e utilizaram-se os modelos de regressão