1313-P: Association between Changes in Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) Status and Development of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD)

We previously determined cut-off values for MetS components to predict CVD and proposed newly optimized criteria for MetS in Japanese. Since MetS status changes over time, we investigated associations between changes in MetS and CVD risk using current and optimized criteria. We divided 201,007 men and 99,579 women without prior CVD into 4 groups according to MetS status at 2 points (beginning and end of baseline) during a 2-year baseline period (MetS-free, MetS-developed, MetS-remission, MetS-persisted). After baseline, incidence of CVD was followed up. Association between changes in MetS and incident CVD was analyzed by a multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 5.0 y, 2,831 men and 330 women developed CVD. Compared with the MetS-free group, MetS-developed and MetS-persisted groups had an increased risk of CVD by any criterion (Fig). With optimized criteria, HR was higher in men with MetS-persisted than in women. Compared with MetS-persisted, MetS-remission had decreased CVD risk by any criterion in men but in women it was associated with decreased CVD risk only by optimized criteria. MetS-developed by any criterion was associated with increased CVD risk in both sexes. MetS-remission by newly optimized criteria was associated with reduced CVD risk in both sexes, suggesting changes in MetS status by optimized criteria are strongly related to CVD risk.