Immature Offshore Wind Technology: UK Life Cycle Capacity Factor Analysis

ABSTRACT By multivariate econometric analysis of UK offshore wind farms, we demonstrate a life cycle effect of the capacity factor of offshore wind. From the bathtub curve findings in reliability engineering, we would expect a long, flat segment of stable operation in the middle of the life cycle production schedule. Our general findings deviate from the standard curve as it does not have a long segment where production is stable. Production starts falling too early. Lack of stable operation period is harmful to wind farm economics. It indicates immature technology and a potential for improvement. We examine the effect life cycle production schedules have on project economics and compare with a common assumption of a flat production schedule. We find that project profitability (net present value) is very sensitive to the life cycle profile of production.